Since October, cotton, which has been soaring all the way, has recently plunged from the high platform, setting the biggest drop in recent years, falling 25%. The decline in cotton prices, coupled with the arrival of the sales season in the fourth quarter, has brought vitality to the home textile industry.
Under the interview of the "Securities Daily" reporter, most home textile listed companies said that this year's orders have increased significantly compared with last year. Although the price of cotton has increased, the price of textiles has also increased, and there is no problem in operation.
New cotton out of Xinjiang to attract cotton prices plummeted
By the end of the 24th, Zheng Mian's main contract had plummeted from 33720 yuan to 25000 yuan per ton. In just 13 days, Zheng Mian had a huge drop of 25%.
Analysts believe that the current round of cotton prices plummeted there are two main factors. One is the government's series of regulatory measures. From November 8th to 10th, for three consecutive days, Zheng Shang issued seven notices in succession to remind investors to trade and invest cautiously, and the state's investment in cotton supply has gradually increased.
According to sources from the Urumqi Railway Bureau, according to the arrangements of relevant departments, the railway must ensure that at least 1 million tons of Xinjiang cotton will come out of Xinjiang before the end of December, which has exceeded China's monthly cotton consumption. "Xinjiang cotton now has at least 300 wagons sent every day, almost unprecedented."
Analysts said that due to the excessive increase in the previous period, in the case of intensive policy introduction, profit-making funds quickly fled after hearing the news, resulting in a sharp drop in cotton prices.
According to the description of cotton speculators, this round of cotton decline is too fierce, especially on the 11th and 12th, cotton closed at the limit, and the cumulative decline in the two days has reached 12.51. According to the 8% regulation of the exchange, add two points and 11% margin calculation, if it is more than 10 single full positions overnight, the decline of more than 12% in the next two trading days is enough to burst positions.
Some analysts pointed out that the current contradiction between cotton supply and demand has not been effectively resolved, and its price is unlikely to fall deeply. Cotton prices may stabilize at 22000 yuan/ton.
Home textile industry has huge consumption space
Since the beginning of this year, cotton prices have been rising rapidly, breaking through the 20000 yuan/ton mark, up nearly 50% from 14000 yuan/ton in the same period last year. Affected by the soaring price of cotton, bedding has generally increased by more than 30%, and the price of autumn and winter clothing has also increased.
A listed home textile company told reporters that the price of cotton has increased, and the price of the company's products has also increased. The company can completely pass on the price increase of cotton to the downstream.
The price increase of home textile products such as bedding brought about by the increase in cotton prices has not hindered the sales market. There are still many consumers buying bedding, and the passenger flow of shops is still very large. Although the price of cotton has risen very high, both dealers and consumers believe that the price will continue to run at a high level, and cotton-padded clothes and quilts are necessities for residents, which has contributed to the "booming supply and demand" under the background of high prices ".
Yang Zhaohua, President of China Home Textile Association, made a work report at the first executive meeting of the fifth session of China Home Textile Association. In the report, Yang Zhaohua pointed out that from January to August 2010, the home textile industry overcame the impact of the sharp increase in the price of raw materials and the rapid increase in the cost of labor and other factors of production, consolidated the simultaneous rise of production and export to the development momentum, further improved production efficiency, and continued to improve profit margins and employment.
According to statistics from the National Bureau of Statistics, 2536 home textile enterprises above designated size completed a total industrial output value of 134.575 billion billion yuan from January to August, an increase of 25.1 percent over the same period last year, the export delivery value of 35.384 billion billion yuan, an increase of 17.66 percent over the same period last year, and the main business income of 129.14 billion billion yuan, an increase of 25.37 percent over the same period last year. Profit margin of 4.63 per cent.
According to the consumption habits of developed countries, clothing, home textiles, industrial textiles three categories of consumption (in accordance with fiber consumption) should each account for 1/3 of the total market consumption. However, my country's current clothing textile consumption accounts for about 65% of the total, home textile consumption only accounts for 23%, and the per capita consumption of home textiles accounts for less than 1% of consumer expenditure. From the reality of domestic and foreign textile products consumption gap and the future development trend, China's home textile industry has a huge space for development.
According to the analysis of CIC consultants, the current Chinese people's consumption concept of home textile products is also gradually changing. With the gradual improvement of the design and technical level of Chinese enterprises, the huge consumption potential of the home textile market will be released.
Urbanization drives home textile market growth
CIC consultant analysis, in the textile industry, it is recommended to focus on the rapid development of the home textile sub-industry. China's home textiles are in a period of scale-driven growth. The experience of the United States shows that when the per capita disposable income is between 1000 and 5000 US dollars, home textile consumption is in a period of rapid growth. In the past ten years, the average annual growth rate of the total output value of my country's home textile industry is close to 20%. In the next few years, with the continuous advancement of my country's urbanization process and the increase in the number of people of the right age for wedding marriages, the domestic home textile market will continue to grow, and the industry's leading companies will obtain the market. Double opportunities to expand the total amount and increase the share.
Nowadays, China has entered a stage of accelerated consumption. The clothing consumption expenditure of urban residents is much higher than that of rural residents. In 2009, the per capita clothing consumption expenditure of urban residents in my country was 1284 yuan, while the per capita clothing consumption expenditure of rural residents was only 233 yuan. Therefore, home textiles, which are in the growth stage, are favored by the market, especially consumer goods companies whose sales channels are expanding to the third and fourth tier cities and rural markets.
Some analysts believe that the growth of residents' disposable income needs the promotion of national policies, and it is expected to see the introduction of relevant policies in 2011, which is the ultimate driving force of the textile and garment industry and the biggest benefit of the sector in 2011.
Brokers also generally believe that real estate transactions in 70 large and medium-sized cities across the country are stable, and prices and volumes in some second-and third-tier cities are rising. China's continued urbanization and consumption upgrades will provide strong support for the demand of the home textile industry.
"Brand" drives home textile industry into growth period
After experiencing a period of soaring cotton prices and passive price increases for textile products, many spinning companies recognize the benefits of high-end products. Xu Bohua, chairman of Waltai International Textile, believes that if an enterprise wants to continue to survive, it must change its direction, improve product quality, develop new markets, and expand profit margins as much as possible.
"In the face of the price bottleneck of textile raw materials, enterprises should speed up industrial upgrading, increase product innovation, develop high value-added products, and strive to seek innovation paths for enterprise development. This is the key for enterprises to survive in adversity and the foundation of textile industry development." Sun Huaibin, director of the press center of China Textile Industry Association, said.
At the 2010 China Home Textile Forum, Wang Wei, deputy director of the Consumer Goods Department of the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology, said that the national ministries and commissions will focus on regulating the speculation of cotton and other raw materials, and support the channel construction of leading textile enterprises and brand enterprises and the development of independent brands. Wang Wei said that the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology will accelerate the transformation of Chinese manufacturing from "processing and manufacturing" to "design and manufacturing", and guide powerful foreign trade companies to extend the industrial chain to a higher-end industrial design chain and the laying of domestic and foreign sales channels in the later stage will become Key tasks.
It is reported that in the next step, the Ministry of Commerce and other relevant ministries and commissions will also focus on solving the problem of channel docking in independent brand products, including civilian boutique stores.
CIC consultants believe that comprehensive analysis of financial strength, brand influence, operation management, design and R & D and other factors, we believe that the market share of leading enterprises will gradually increase, and the market concentration of home textile industry will continue to increase. It is estimated that the growth rate of the home textile industry will remain at about 17% in the next 5-10 years. Leading enterprises such as Lorai Home Textile [43.51 -4.16 Stock Bar Research Report], Fuana [32.80 -3.67 Stock Bar Research Report] and Mengjie Home Textile [11.71 -1.01 Stock Bar Research Report] will usher in development opportunities and are expected to achieve rapid growth in performance at a growth rate higher than that of the industry, by accelerating the in-depth development and the development of blank markets to achieve the expansion of network scale will be the focus of the development of these enterprises in the future.